Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Low probability for Ali Larijani as next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market shows a 2.30% probability for Ali Larijani becoming the next Supreme Leader, indicating strong skepticism among participants. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with an edge of 3. Confidence in this assessment is relatively high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Larijani's leadership.
• 2 Historical context shows low turnover in Supreme Leader position.
• 3 Liquidity in this market appears stable with clear pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Confidence level suggests a strong consensus among market participants.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme