Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

The market strongly favors that Ali Motahari will not be the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of Ali Motahari becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a mere 3% probability to his potential leadership, suggesting a well-established perception of his unlikelihood for the role.

• 1 Market shows a clear consensus against Motahari's leadership prospects.
• 2 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly negative towards his candidacy.
• 3 The probability gap indicates a stable market perception.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting confidence in the current odds.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments, but current trends are strong.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme