Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

The market strongly favors that Alireza Arafi will not become Supreme Leader of Iran.

Current market probabilities indicate a consensus that Alireza Arafi has no chance of becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a 0% probability for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, assigning a 3% chance for 'YES' and a 97% chance for 'NO', suggesting a high level of confidence in the prevailing sentiment.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Arafi's ascension.
• 2 Pulse AI's probabilities align closely with market sentiment.
• 3 High confidence level indicates stability in current predictions.
• 4 No significant liquidity issues observed in this market.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme