Will Anabel Mendoza be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Anabel Mendoza has a low probability of being the Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Anabel Mendoza will not be the Democratic nominee for IL-07, with a 99.85% probability against her candidacy. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a 95.35% probability of her not being nominated. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Mendoza's nomination.
• 2 The market probability of 0.15% suggests minimal confidence in her candidacy.
• 3 Pulse AI's 4.65% probability indicates some potential for unexpected developments.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is accurately reflecting current conditions.
• 5 With 129 hours until expiry, there is limited time for significant changes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.