Will Angélica Sosa win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?

Low market probability suggests Angélica Sosa is unlikely to win the election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Angélica Sosa winning the 2026 mayoral election, with only 0.25% probability for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of her victory. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Sosa's chances are perceived as very low based on current data.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities align closely, indicating consensus.
• 4 The confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).