Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Market strongly favors no other outcome in the 2026 Hungarian election.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of no alternative outcome in the upcoming Hungarian Parliamentary election, with a market probability of 99.4% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, estimating a 94.9% chance for 'NO', suggesting a consensus on the expected electoral outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a stable outcome.
• 2 Historical trends suggest low volatility in Hungarian elections.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current probabilities.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in th