Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?

Market strongly favors Albanese remaining leader until 2027.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of Anthony Albanese being replaced as leader before 2027, with a market probability of 0.55% for 'YES' and 99.45% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a 5.05% chance of a leadership change, indicating a consensus on his stability in the role.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Albanese's leadership stability.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests confidence in his position.
• 3 Historical trends show leaders often remain until election cycles.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for current trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential political developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.