Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?

Anutin Charnvirakul is highly favored to become Thailand's next prime minister.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 97.95% probability for Anutin Charnvirakul's election as prime minister. However, the AI probability is slightly lower at 92.45%, indicating some skepticism. The edge suggests that the NO side may be undervalued, reflecting potential uncertainties in the political landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Anutin Charnvirakul.
• 2 The probability gap indicates potential undervaluation of the NO side.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Market liquidity may affect the ability to adjust positions as events unfold.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and appointed to be Prime Minister of Thailand following the 2026 general legislative election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally selected for the role of Prime Minister and appointed to the role by the king of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is selected and appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.