Will Arthur Cottrel be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Arthur Cottrel is highly unlikely to be the next mayor of Toulouse.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Arthur Cottrel becoming the next mayor, with a 99.95% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of his election. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors NO for Cottrel's election.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a consensus on Cottrel's unlikelihood.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Low liquidity may affect market responsiveness to new information.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.