Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Market shows a strong belief that Beutner will not win the 2026 mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 99.05% probability that Austin Beutner will not win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, reflecting a strong consensus against his candidacy. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a low likelihood of his success, with an edge indicating the market is fairly priced. Confidence levels are moderate, suggesting some uncertainty remains in the political landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Beutner.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing assessments of Beutner's chances.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating potential volatility as the election approaches.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in the election outcome.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.