Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Low probability for Lieberman as next Prime Minister of Israel.

The market shows a strong consensus against Avigdor Lieberman becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 99.1% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a mere 5.4% chance to a YES outcome, indicating a significant divergence from market expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.1%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low likelihood of Lieberman becoming Prime Minister at 5.4%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7112 hours, allowing for potential political developments.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.