Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

The market indicates a low probability for Ayelet Shaked as the next Prime Minister.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against Ayelet Shaked becoming the next Prime Minister, with a market probability of only 0.60% for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a mere 5.1% probability to her candidacy, suggesting that significant political shifts would be necessary for her chances to improve.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 94.9% for 'NO'.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7077 hours, allowing for potential developments.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.