Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Azerbaijan is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 televote based on current predictions.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Azerbaijan winning the televote, with a 98.75% NO probability. In contrast, the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of 5.75% for a YES outcome, indicating some divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Azerbaijan.
• 2 The AI model predicts a slightly higher chance for Azerbaijan than the market.
• 3 Market probability suggests strong skepticism about Azerbaijan's chances.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 5 With 1318 hours until expiry, there is time for sentiment to shift.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.