Will Bae June-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

Bae June-young has a low chance of winning the 2026 Incheon mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Bae June-young will not win the upcoming election, with a 99.75% probability against. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for a potential win. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Bae June-young's campaign dynamics are not currently favorable.
• 3 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 4 There is a moderate level of confidence in the current pricing.
• 5 Time remaining until the election could influence future probabilities.

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).