Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Balen Shah is highly favored to become the next Prime Minister of Nepal.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 98.90% probability for Balen Shah to be the next Prime Minister of Nepal. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 94.9%, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -4, suggesting no significant mispricing at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Balen Shah's candidacy.
• 2 The high probability suggests limited room for price movement.
• 3 Historical trends indicate strong support for popular candidates.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market volatility.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.