Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Market indicates low probability of Netanyahu leaving leadership before 2027.

The prediction market shows a 24.3% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will no longer be the leader before 2027, with a strong majority (75.7%) believing he will remain in power. The market is considered fairly priced with no edge, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 65 out of 100. With nearly 290 days until expiry, there is ample time for political developments to influence these probabilities.

• 1 Current sentiment favors Netanyahu remaining in power.
• 2 Political stability in Israel supports the NO position.
• 3 Historical trends show incumbents often retain leadership.
• 4 Market liquidity appears balanced with no significant bias.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential political developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.