Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Netanyahu has a 62% chance of being the next Prime Minister of Israel.

The prediction market indicates a 62% probability for Benjamin Netanyahu to become the next Prime Minister, which aligns closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 58%. The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of -4, suggesting balanced sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors Netanyahu as the next Prime Minister.
• 2 The market probability is slightly higher than the AI's estimate.
• 3 The edge of -4 indicates a fair pricing of the market.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.