Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Brandon Sowers has a low chance of becoming the Republican nominee for AZ-01.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Brandon Sowers as the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with a probability of only 2.7% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI probability also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of his nomination. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears fairly priced, suggesting limited volatility in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates strong skepticism about Sowers' candidacy.
• 3 Historical trends suggest low chances for candidates with similar market positions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts but currently shows little movement.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.