Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

BSW is highly unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 elections.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against BSW winning the most seats, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO'. The AI model also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 1.55%, indicating a low likelihood of BSW's success in the upcoming elections.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against BSW winning the most seats.
• 2 The market probability suggests a strong belief in other parties' dominance.
• 3 Historical trends in Baden-Württemberg elections may favor established parties.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as elections approach.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).