Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

The market indicates a low probability of BSW winning the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against BSW winning the most seats in the upcoming Berlin state elections, with a 99.6% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating only a 4.9% probability of a YES outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 99.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market, indicating low confidence in BSW's success.
• 3 Current edge suggests the market is fairly priced with a 4.5 edge.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Confidence level at 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)