Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors BSW not winning the most seats in 2026 elections.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of BSW winning the most seats, with a 99.35% chance of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, suggesting a 94.85% probability against BSW's success, indicating a consensus on this outcome.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against BSW winning.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).