The market strongly favors BSW not winning the second most seats in 2026.
Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that BSW will not secure the second most seats in the upcoming elections. The AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of change. Given the high confidence level, the market appears to be accurately priced.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will r