Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Butch Ware has a very low chance of winning the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.15% probability of Butch Ware winning the election, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher 3.15%. Both sources reflect a strong consensus that he is unlikely to succeed, with the market being fairly priced based on current sentiment and confidence levels.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI estimates.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in the political climate.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.