Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Wolfgang Grozo's chances of winning are nearly even in the prediction market.

The market shows a close contest for the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, with Grozo's probability at 49.5% and a slight edge from AI predictions at 51%. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating uncertainty in the outcome as the election approaches.

• 1 Market probabilities are closely matched, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 AI predictions slightly favor Grozo, suggesting potential for a shift.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 798 hours, allowing for developments to influence outcomes.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).