Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?

Catherine Trautmann is highly favored to become the next mayor of Strasbourg.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 97.40% probability for Trautmann's election. However, the Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 91.9%, indicating some skepticism. The NO side is considered undervalued by 5.5 points, suggesting potential for a shift in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Trautmann's election.
• 2 The Pulse AI shows a slightly lower confidence in her victory.
• 3 The NO side has a notable undervaluation, indicating possible market inefficiencies.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 The time to expiry for the market is currently unknown, adding to the unpredictability.

The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Strasbourg is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Strasbourg.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).