Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

The market strongly favors NO for CD winning the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that CD will not win the most seats in the upcoming election, with a consensus probability of 99.7% for NO. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 1.8%, suggesting a low but present chance for an upset. The edge of 1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for CD's seat count.
• 2 Historical trends suggest incumbents often retain seats, impacting CD's chances.
• 3 Low liquidity may affect the responsiveness of market prices to new information.
• 4 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.
• 5 Pulse AI indicates a marginally higher chance for YES, but still low overall.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).