Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

The market suggests CD is unlikely to secure the third most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that CD will not win the third most seats, with a NO probability of 85.95%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher confidence in a YES outcome at 19.05%. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced, indicating moderate confidence in the current predictions.

• 1 Market probability favors NO at 85.95%, indicating low confidence in CD's success.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 19.05%, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates the market is fairly priced with moderate confidence.
• 4 Political dynamics in Colombia could influence these probabilities as the election approaches.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about CD's electoral performance in 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results