Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The CDU is unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg elections.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the CDU will not secure the most seats, with a 96.05% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a low likelihood of CDU success in the upcoming elections.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO sentiment at 96.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 Current political climate may favor other parties over CDU.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to predictions.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).