Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

CDU has a slight edge in the prediction market for the 2026 Berlin elections.

The market shows a narrow probability favoring CDU to win the most seats in the upcoming Berlin state elections, with a 53.5% chance compared to 46.5% for the opposition. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a balanced outlook. Given the confidence level of 60/100, the situation is deemed too close to call.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans slightly towards CDU winning the most seats.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a competitive race with no clear frontrunner.
• 3 Historical trends in Berlin elections may influence voter behavior.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting active participation.
• 5 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts in public sentiment.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)