Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

The market favors a NO outcome for CDU winning the most seats in 2026 elections.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong expectation that CDU will not win the most seats, with a NO probability of 91.45%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 13.05%, indicating some divergence in sentiment. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 91.45%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 13.05%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 3941 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).