Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors CDU winning the second most seats in 2026 elections.

With a market probability of 99.25% for a CDU victory in seat count, confidence remains high. The Pulse AI also supports this outlook with a 96.75% probability, indicating strong consensus among participants. The edge of -2.5 suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view of potential outcomes.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors CDU's success.
• 2 Recent polling data supports CDU's strong position.
• 3 Historical trends indicate CDU's consistent performance in the region.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, allowing for smooth transactions.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, which may affect future probabilities.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will r