Will Charles McCall replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

Market strongly favors Markwayne Mullin to remain Senator over Charles McCall.

The prediction market shows a definitive 100% probability against Charles McCall replacing Markwayne Mullin as Senator. With a low AI probability of 4.5% for McCall's replacement, the consensus suggests Mullin's position is secure, although there remains a slight chance for change.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Mullin's incumbency.
• 2 The AI prediction indicates a low probability for McCall's success.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.

Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.

If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”

Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; h