Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Market shows a close probability for a China-Taiwan conflict before GTA VI release.

The prediction market indicates a slight edge towards the possibility of China invading Taiwan before the release of GTA VI, with probabilities at 51.5% for YES and 48.5% for NO. However, the Pulse AI suggests a higher likelihood of NO at 54.5%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points.

• 1 Current market sentiment is closely divided on the likelihood of conflict.
• 2 The Pulse AI suggests a stronger probability for NO, indicating market mispricing.
• 3 Confidence in the market is relatively high at 85 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.
• 5 Market liquidity may influence the volatility of predictions as events unfold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by Ch