Will China join the Board of Peace?

The market shows a strong belief that China will not join the Board of Peace.

Current market probabilities indicate a significant consensus against China joining the Board of Peace, with a NO probability of 98.85%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 3.15%, but overall confidence remains low, reflecting skepticism about China's participation.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors NO at 98.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 3.15%.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 5 No specific expiry time may affect the urgency of market movements.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board