Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Cho Kuk is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Cho Kuk winning, with a 99.85% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of victory at 3.15%. Given the current probabilities, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome for Cho Kuk.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher but still low chance of YES.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates strong opposition to Cho Kuk's candidacy.
• 4 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.