Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

Christian Estrosi is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Nice mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Christian Estrosi winning the upcoming mayoral election, with a probability of only 0.15% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.65% for his victory, suggesting that current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Estrosi.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Estrosi's low probability indicates limited public support at this time.
• 4 The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential changes in the political climate.

The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).