Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Civic Platform is unlikely to win the most seats in the upcoming election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Civic Platform winning the most seats, with a 99% probability for 'NO'. The AI model also reflects a low probability of 5.5% for 'YES', indicating a general expectation that Civic Platform will not perform well in the election.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 99%.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 5.5%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 4850 hours, allowing for potential developments.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalit