Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?

Market indicates low likelihood of Claudia Sheinbaum being the next leader out before 2027.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Claudia Sheinbaum being the next leader out before 2027, with a probability of only 1.15% for 'YES' and 98.85% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of her departure from leadership in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 98.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market, indicating low risk of leadership change.
• 3 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 6938 hours, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5, indicating balanced expectations.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.