Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Coalition Avenir Québec has a low chance of winning the most seats in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 10% probability for Coalition Avenir Québec to win the most seats, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher 14.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 4521 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced with a small edge of 4.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome at 90%.
• 2 The AI model shows a marginally higher probability for YES at 14.5%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with the AI predictions.
• 4 A confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 With 4521 hours until expiry, there is ample time for developments to influence the market.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).