Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for UML winning the most seats.

The prediction market shows a very low probability of 0.05% for the UML winning the most seats, indicating strong skepticism about their electoral prospects. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, with a 3.05% chance for YES, suggesting a consensus that UML is unlikely to secure a majority. The edge of 3 implies that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against UML winning the most seats.
• 2 The high NO probability indicates strong confidence in rival parties.
• 3 Historical trends suggest UML has struggled in recent elections.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent trader engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future market movements.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).