The market strongly favors the UML not winning the second-most seats in the election.
Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) will not secure the second-most seats in the upcoming election. With a market probability of 99.55% for 'NO', the sentiment leans heavily against UML's success, despite a lower AI probability of 3.45% for 'YES'. This disparity suggests that while the market is confident, there may be some underlying uncertainty.
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.
If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).