Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win less than 20 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?

Market strongly favors CPN-UML winning 20 or more seats in 2026.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.25% for the CPN-UML winning more than 20 seats, indicating strong confidence in their electoral performance. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a lower probability of 96.25%. This suggests that while the market is confident, there is still some room for uncertainty.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors CPN-UML exceeding 20 seats.
• 2 The market probability indicates a consensus on CPN-UML's electoral strength.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly lower confidence, suggesting potential volatility.
• 4 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the election approaches.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the specified party in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

Any seat won by the specified party in this election will count, regardless of the party that previously controlled the seat. Seats that are uncontested in the specified election will not be considered.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).