Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

The market strongly favors the NO outcome for Conservative seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% likelihood that the Conservative party will not win the most seats in the upcoming election. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low probability of Conservative success. This alignment indicates a strong consensus against the Conservatives in the current political landscape.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO outcome at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 1.55%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 suggests strong conviction in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).