Will Cristian Tastaca win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?

Cristian Tastaca has a low probability of winning the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Cristian Tastaca will not win the upcoming mayoral election, with a market probability of 99.55% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.95% for 'YES', suggesting a consensus on his unfavorable chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.55%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.95%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 244 hours, allowing for potential developments.

The Cochabamba mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).