Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Croatia is unlikely to win the Eurovision 2026 televote based on current predictions.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Croatia winning the televote, with a 99.55% probability of NO. In contrast, the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance at 4.95% for YES, indicating some divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Market heavily favors NO, indicating low confidence in Croatia's chances.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for YES, showing some disagreement.
• 3 Current market sentiment reflects historical trends in Eurovision voting.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing structure.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.