Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

César Acuña is unlikely to win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against César Acuña winning the election, with a 99.65% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.85%, indicating some uncertainty but overall confidence in the market's assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a higher, but still low, probability of 4.85% for 'YES.'
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 795 hours, allowing for potential changes in sentiment.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).