Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Daniel Biss is highly favored to be the Democratic nominee for IL-09.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of Daniel Biss securing the Democratic nomination for IL-09, with a market probability of 99.95%. The Pulse AI model also supports this view, though with a slightly lower probability of 97.45%. The edge of -2.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a high level of confidence in Biss's candidacy.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming support for Biss at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 97.45%, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The market edge of -2.5 suggests prices are aligned with expectations.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, reflecting strong market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect future market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.