Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Daniel Mercuri has a very low chance of winning the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.20% probability of Daniel Mercuri winning the California Governor Election in 2026, with a strong consensus against his candidacy. The Pulse AI analysis suggests a slightly higher probability of 3.2%, but both sources reflect a significant skepticism regarding his chances. The current market appears fairly priced, indicating a stable sentiment among participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Mercuri's win.
• 2 Market probability is significantly lower than Pulse AI's estimate.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes in the political landscape.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3, suggesting stability.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.