Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Low probability for Quintero to win the 1st round of the 2026 election.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Daniel Quintero winning the first round, with a 99.8% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment heavily favors other candidates. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Quintero.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trading activity.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).