Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election?

David Belliard has a very low chance of winning the Paris mayor election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability of David Belliard winning, suggesting he is a significant underdog. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.05%, indicating a consensus that he is unlikely to succeed. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a high confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Belliard's victory.
• 2 Belliard's low probability reflects a challenging political landscape.
• 3 The market's edge suggests prices are aligned with expectations.
• 4 High confidence level indicates strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Limited time to expiry may affect market dynamics as the election approaches.

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).